How Criminals Choose, and How to Break the Cycle
By Larry Betz | Prepared Not Paranoid https://www.preparednotparanoid.com/
Criminals rarely pick someone at random. They look for the easiest target: someone distracted, isolated, or unsure. The good news is that you have a lot of control over whether that's you. In this post, you'll learn the steps a bad guy usually follows, how to break them early, and how to make sure you don't look like a target in the first place.
The Hostile Planning Cycle
In Part 3, you learned how Cooper's Color Code, the OODA Loop, and SCAN help you stay aware. People with bad intentions often follow a process of their own. It's called the Hostile Planning Cycle. The bad guy thinks about the person, the place, the time, and how long it will take.
Understanding that cycle gives you an advantage, because every stage is a chance to break it.
Here are the six stages, and how to break each one.
What It Looks Like in a Parking Lot
Picture yourself walking through a shopping center parking lot, checking a text. Someone loitering nearby notices that your eyes are on your screen, not on your surroundings. (Target selection.) He watches you walk to your car and sees which one is yours. (Surveillance.) He starts drifting your way, timing it for when your hands are full of bags. (Planning.) He circles a car or two and acts like he's looking for something, inching closer to see if you notice. (Rehearsal.)
Now picture the same walk with your phone in your pocket, your head up, and your keys in your hand. You notice him early. You make brief eye contact, change your path, and head back toward the store entrance. The cycle breaks before it ever reaches execution.
The One Rule That Never Changes
If someone has already taken what they wanted and then says something like, "Get in the car," "Get in the trunk," or "Let's go to the stairwell," the answer is a hard NO. Never go to a secondary crime scene. Whatever they're promising, the second location is always worse.
At that point, it's time to fight like you're the third monkey trying to get on the Ark... and brother, it's starting to rain.
Don't Look Like a Target
Your body language sends a message before you ever say a word. In a well-known study, researchers Betty Grayson and Morris Stein showed video of people walking down a city street to inmates convicted of violent crimes, and asked who they would target. Their picks had a lot to do with how people walked. (We'll dig into that research in Part 7.)
Criminals look at how you walk, how you carry yourself, how you dress, whether you make eye contact, and how you sound. Here's what each signal looks like.
None of this means you have to look tough. It means you look aware. Purposeful movement, your head up, and a calm, clear voice tell a bad guy that you're paying attention and you won't be easy.
SCAN It
See your environment. Head up, especially at transitions like parking lots and doorways.
Create space. If someone is drifting toward you, change your path.
Act deliberately. Head back inside, ask for an escort, or get in the car and lock the doors right away.
Never doubt your gut feelings. You don't need proof to turn around.
5 Quick Wins You Can Start Today
Keys out before you leave the store. Don't dig for them at your car.
Keep one hand free. Use a cart, or make two trips.
Scan before you unlock. Look around your car, and inside it, before you open the door.
Lock the doors as soon as you're in. Then load the phone, the GPS, and the music.
Walk like you have somewhere to be. Even when you don't.
What to Say: When Someone Approaches You at Your Car
Safe and non-engaging
"Sorry, I can't help." Keep moving.
Hold up a hand, shake your head, and head back toward the store.
Setting boundaries
"Stop right there."
"I don't need anything. Back up."
If they persist
"BACK OFF!" Loud and firm, to draw attention.
Put the car between you, move toward people and light, and call 911.
Ask Yourself
If someone were watching me walk to my car today, would I look like an easy target?
Where am I most distracted during a normal day?
Have I talked to my kids about never going to a second location?
Remember
Bad guys look for easy. Don't be easy. Most of what keeps you off their list is simple: head up, phone down, keys ready, and walk with purpose. And if anyone ever tries to move you somewhere else, the answer is always no.
The Prepared Protector is someone who's decided that loving someone means being ready for them, not just hoping things go fine. It starts with the way you walk out the door.
Get Started Today
Start with the free Personal Safety and Awareness checklists from The Family Safety Toolkit. Simple checklists to help you and your family practice awareness every day. DM the word AWARE on Instagram or Facebook and I'll send it to you. [Get it here: LINK]
Go Deeper
Situational Awareness and Safe Family Travel Strategies. This post gives you the short version. The book walks through every stage of the Hostile Planning Cycle in detail and covers non-verbal deterrence in depth: how your walk, the way you dress, your eye contact, and your voice affect who gets chosen. It also covers more than 40 pre-event indicators, de-escalation, carjacking prevention, and travel safety. [Get it here: https://store.bookbaby.com/book/situational-awareness-and-safe-family-travel-strategies]
Tools I recommend: The personal safety alarms, flashlights, and other everyday safety tools I recommend are in my Personal Safety Tools Amazon store. https://link.amazon/B0cVLeoJM
Related reading:
Situational Awareness, Part 3: Awareness Buys You Time https://www.preparednotparanoid.com/pnp-library/awareness-buys-you-time
Situational Awareness, Part 5: Decoding Danger [LINK when posted]
The Safest House on the Block, Part 2: How Criminals Pick a Home https://www.preparednotparanoid.com/pnp-library/home-invasion-tactics
References
Grayson, B., and Stein, M. I. (1981). Attracting assault: Victims' nonverbal cues. Journal of Communication, 31(1), 68 to 75.
Disclaimer
This article is for general informational and educational purposes only. It is not a substitute for professional self-defense training, legal advice, or guidance from law enforcement. It's meant to start conversations in your family about staying aware and safe. Affiliate disclosure: I've linked to products from my Amazon store that I personally recommend. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases, at no extra cost to you. Thank you for supporting my work.
If you're in danger right now, get to a safe place and call 911.
Awareness gives you time. Time gives you options.
The Prepared Protector is someone who's decided that loving someone means being ready for them, not just hoping things go fine.
Prepared Not Paranoid. Protecting the Most Vulnerable Among Us.
